Summary: Pro-American Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq are preparing for a potential incursion into Iran, supported by a pre-existing CIA covert program that has provided them with small arms. While U.S. officials debate the utility of such a move, the White House has denied that President Trump has approved a plan for a Kurdish insurgency. Any incursion would open a new front in the conflict but is not seen as capable of toppling the Iranian government.
Main Topics Covered:
1. Preparations by Iranian Kurdish forces for a potential cross-border incursion from Iraq.
2. U.S. covert support (via the CIA) for these Kurdish groups.
3. Internal U.S. government debate and denial regarding authorizing an insurgency.
4. The strategic context of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign in Iran.
5. Historical complexities and risks of U.S. cooperation with Kurdish groups.
Supported by
Pro-American Kurdish Forces Are Preparing Possible Iran Incursion
The C.I.A. has given small weapons to Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq in a covert program that began before the current war.
Pro-American, Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraq are preparing armed units that could enter Iran, creating a potential new front in an already expanding conflict, according to Iraqi officials and senior members of Iranian Kurdish groups.
The C.I.A. has previously given small arms to the Iranian Kurdish forces as part of a covert program to destabilize Iran, an effort that began before the current war, according to people familiar with the effort.
But in a briefing on Wednesday, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said reports that President Trump had agreed to any plan for the Kurds to launch an insurgency in Iran were “completely false.”
The U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran that began on Saturday has killed the country’s supreme leader and other top officials. It has also targeted government and security facilities around the country, including on the Iran-Iraq border. American officials are debating the utility of a Kurdish incursion as fighting intensifies, according to the people briefed on the situation.
Any U.S. effort to assist the Kurds in beginning an incursion into Iran, or any sort of insurgency there, would be a surprising twist in the war. If large enough, the incursion could force Iranian army units to respond, allowing American or Israeli planes to target them.
The United States has a long history of working with Kurdish militia forces in Iraq and Syria. But America also has a reputation of abandoning the Kurds, an ethnic group that stretches across parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. After the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the United States encouraged a Kurdish uprising in Iraq, but then stood by as the Iraqi army slaughtered Kurdish forces.
Some people familiar with the planning for any potential Kurdish incursion into Iran voiced a note of caution. There is no way that any Kurdish force could topple the Iranian government, they say, or even significantly influence who might take power. The C.I.A. has provided only small arms to the Kurdish forces, which do not have tanks or heavy weaponry to launch an invasion or to plausibly threaten the theocratic government in Tehran.
Former officials also said Iran’s Persian majority would not welcome an armed Kurdish incursion. There are an estimated 6 million to 9 million Kurds in the country of 90 million people.
The people familiar with the deliberations echoed Ms. Leavitt, saying the White House had not yet decided whether to send the Kurds into Iran. And some of the people said the decision may not be up to Israel or the United States, and the Kurdish leadership might make its own call.
Iran has been pressuring Iraq to prevent the Kurdish fighters from crossing the border, the Iraqi officials and Iranian Kurdish leaders said.
This week, Mr. Trump asked two Iraqi Kurdish leaders, Massoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani, to enable Iranian Kurdish fighters based in Iraq to move into Iran, according to two Iranian Kurdish leaders and two Iraqi security officials.
One of the Iranian Kurdish officials said Mr. Trump had a separate call on Tuesday to discuss sending forces over the border with the head of one of those Kurdish groups, Mustafa Hijri, of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran. All the officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Neither the security officials nor the group members elaborated on what form the U.S. support might take.
Ms. Leavitt said that she would not comment on Mr. Trump’s calls with foreign officials but that the president “did speak to Kurdish leaders with respect to our base that we have in northern Iraq.”
The C.I.A. declined to comment on the effort to support the Kurds.
It is not clear precisely when the C.I.A. began arming the Kurds, but it is part of a long-term covert campaign by the agency to destabilize the Iranian government, according to those familiar with the effort. Former officials said it was never meant to topple the government in Tehran, but aimed at distracting leaders or potentially creating a security crisis.
The C.I.A. effort to arm the Kurdish forces was earlier reported by CNN. Axios reported on a call between Kurdish leaders in Iraq and Mr. Trump to discuss the war in Iran.
Since the beginning of the joint U.S.-Israeli war campaign, bombs and missiles have struck targets in eastern Iran, apparently focused on Kurdistan Province, according to an analysis by The New York Times. It is unclear from imagery if the United States, Israel or both forces have hit those targets.
Several Iranian Kurdish leaders described the strikes in eastern Iran as part of an effort to support an infiltration from Iraq.
The strikes have hit Islamic Revolutionary Guards facilities, police stations and, critically, border guard posts and communications towers. The strikes also have hit civilian administrative buildings, and damaged nearby residential areas.
An analysis of video footage and satellite imagery shows that the strikes have been concentrated on locations near highways that run from the Iraq-Iran border into Iran. The bombardments have come at a huge cost to civilian lives in the area, Iranians who have relatives there told The Times.
Where strikes hit along the Iran-Iraq border
The bombing campaign would make any incursion by Iranian-Kurdish forces from Iraq easier, reducing the strength of Iranian forces that could seek to stop the invasion.
In Sanandaj, the provincial capital of Iran’s Kurdistan region, the strikes flattened security facilities and administrative offices. One verified video captured a large explosion at a police headquarters already surrounded by smoke, with later images showing the destroyed complex, including a broadcast tower.
In Marivan, a smaller city closer to Iraq’s border, a prison and adjacent jail were heavily damaged, satellite imagery and video posted online show. Other targeted locations included Baneh, where a video verified by The Times showed extensive destruction in the city’s center.
Since the opening salvos of the war on Saturday, Mr. Trump has framed the attacks as a “historic opportunity” for Iranians to overthrow their authoritarian clerical rulers.
Iran’s Kurds have often faced the brunt of the authoritarian government’s repression. Their political leaders have long sought to create a national homeland, either as a state or through self-governing federal regions within their current countries.
“We are fighting for freedom and of course we are fighting against the military that is harming our people,” said Siamand Moani, a veteran leader of the Kurdistan Free Life Party, one of the Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq that officials say plan to send fighters into Iran. Mr. Moani would not confirm nor deny that effort, but said the militants had “broadened” their operations.
Since the war began, proxy militias aligned with Iran have struck a U.S. base in Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region. They have also hit the region’s international airport, oil and gas facilities, and at least two bases used by Iranian Kurdish fighters there.
Iraq’s central government, which has close ties to Iran, has ordered officials in the Iraqi Kurdistan region not to allow Iranian Kurdish militants to cross the border, according to two senior Iraqi officials. Regional officials in Iraqi Kurdistan seem to have complied with the request, the officials said.
On Tuesday, the deputy prime minister of Iraqi Kurdistan, Qubad Talabani, said in a statement that he had stressed in a security meeting that the region “is not a part in the regional conflict, and adopts a neutral stance.”
Some Iranian Kurdish leaders said they were hesitant to work with the United States to launch operations in Iran, given the potential costs to their people if the effort failed.
Still, one of those officials said that some Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraq have decided to go forward with a plan to send forces into Iran.
Their hope is that once an insurgency is launched, local residents will join them — though there is no guarantee of that, as many Kurds in the region are not loyal to these groups.
Iranian Kurdish regions, however, were some of the most restive during a nationwide protest movement against Iran’s government in January, which authorities crushed in a deadly crackdown.
Michael Crowley and Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Natan Odenheimer from Jerusalem.
Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.
Christiaan Triebert is a Times reporter working on the Visual Investigations team, a group that combines traditional reporting with digital sleuthing and analysis of visual evidence to verify and source facts from around the world.
Parin Behrooz is an associate editor and writer for The New York Times.
Farnaz Fassihi is the United Nations bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the organization. She also covers Iran and has written about conflict in the Middle East for 15 years.
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