The escalating conflict in the Middle East is directly impacting the war in Ukraine by diverting critical air defense missiles and systems to the Persian Gulf, creating shortages for Kyiv. This has forced the postponement of planned three-way peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Ukrainian and European leaders warn that these diverted resources could weaken Ukraine's defensive position and its negotiating leverage.
Main Topics Covered:
1. The diversion of military support, specifically air defense systems, from Ukraine to the Middle East conflict.
2. The postponement of trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S.
3. Efforts by Ukrainian and European officials to keep international focus on Ukraine and link the two geopolitical crises.
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Fallout From Mideast Swirls Over the War in Ukraine
Three-way peace talks are on hold, and Kyiv fears that U.S. air defense systems it needs to counter Russia could be diverted to the Iran conflict.
The crisis in the Middle East has started to reverberate in Ukraine, putting peace talks with Russia on hold and raising fears in Kyiv of diminished military support.
After the United States and Israel started bombing Iran five days ago, the conflict quickly spread through the Mideast. As Iran has targeted the United States’ Persian Gulf allies with missiles and drones, those countries and American forces have fired large numbers of interceptor missiles to fend off the attacks.
That has drained stocks of the defensive weapons that Ukraine has come to rely on from its allies to defend against Russian missiles. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has acknowledged the potential knock-on effects from the Middle East conflict, telling reporters this week that he had raised the issue with Kyiv’s partners.
“There are concerns that in the event of a prolonged war, America may reduce supplies of air defense systems and missiles for air defense to Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said in an interview with the Italian national broadcaster, RAI, that aired on Wednesday.
Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said on Thursday that the events in the Middle East had a “clear impact” on the war in Ukraine.
“There are defense capabilities that are needed in Ukraine now moving also to the Middle East,” she said in Brussels. “There is also the issue of supply chains, of supplying the capabilities that Ukraine needs, now also the Middle East needs, when it comes to air defense, for example.”
Those air defenses are critical to protect towns and cities from Russian attacks and to save Ukrainian lives. Shortages not only could embolden Moscow to step up barrages, but also could give the impression that Ukraine has a weakened hand in peace negotiations once they resume.
Those negotiations had been expected to continue this week with trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States. A meeting was scheduled to be held in the United Arab Emirates, but that country has come under Iranian attack in recent days.
Mr. Zelensky had suggested moving the talks to Switzerland or Turkey. But in his overnight address on Wednesday, he said, “Because of the situation with Iran, the necessary signals for a trilateral meeting haven’t come yet.”
“As soon as the security situation and the broader political context allow us to resume the trilateral diplomatic work, it will be done,” he added. “Ukraine is ready for it.”
With the crisis in the Persian Gulf intensifying, Mr. Zelensky and Kyiv’s European allies have tried to keep Ukraine from falling out of the international focus, even as the war against Russia continues unabated four years after Moscow’s invasion.
The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, speaking at a news conference this week after visiting the White House, said he had explicitly urged President Trump to link the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.
“Anyone who fights for security and justice in the Middle East must also want security and justice in Europe,” Mr. Merz said.
Mr. Zelensky has also tried to connect the two, noting the ties between Russia and Iran in his statements. He has spoken with several Middle Eastern leaders in recent days and offered to share Ukraine’s expertise in contending with drone strikes.
Ukraine has years of hard-gained experience defending against Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones, which Russia deploys by the dozen every night. On Thursday morning, the Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia had launched 155 of them overnight.
Mr. Zelensky said that the United States was among the Ukrainian partners that had sought Kyiv’s guidance and “practical support.” He said that Ukraine was coordinating efforts that could involve sending Ukrainian experts to the Middle East.
Ukraine produces large numbers of small interceptor drones intended to defend against Shaheds. Mr. Zelensky has floated the idea of trading such interceptors for the more powerful Patriot missile systems that Ukraine badly needs to defend against Russian ballistic missiles.
“Any assistance we provide is only on the condition that it does not weaken our own defense in Ukraine and that it serves as an investment in our diplomatic capabilities,” Mr. Zelensky said. “We help protect against war those who help us — Ukraine — bring the war to a dignified conclusion.”
Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting from Brussels, and Nataliia Novosolova from Kyiv.
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