The U.S. government is drafting expansive new export controls that would establish a worldwide licensing system for advanced AI chips from companies like Nvidia and AMD. This system would grant the Trump administration authority to approve or block global sales, with stricter oversight than previous rules.
The proposed regime uses a tiered approach based on computing scale, ranging from simplified reviews for small shipments to requiring direct government-to-government negotiations for the largest AI clusters. For massive installations, approvals would be contingent on national security assurances and commitments to invest in U.S. AI infrastructure.
If enacted, the rules would not be a total ban but a powerful tool to influence global AI development, potentially complicating and delaying large-scale data center projects outside the United States. The policy's impact on chipmakers would heavily depend on the speed and conditions of the licensing process.
Main Topics: U.S. export controls on AI hardware, worldwide licensing system, tiered regulatory approach based on computing scale, potential impact on global AI infrastructure development.
US gov't preps sweeping export controls for Nvidia, AMD AI hardware — worldwide licensing system would give Trump admin broad authority to block global sales
Worse than Biden's AI Diffusion Rule?
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The U.S. government is drafting sweeping new export regulations that would give it authority to approve nearly all global shipments of advanced AI accelerators made by American companies, including AMD and Nvidia, reports Bloomberg. The rules would expand existing country-based restrictions into a worldwide licensing system and will give Trump's administration power to allow or decline large-scale AI infrastructure buildouts. The rule turns out to be considerably stricter than the highly-criticized AI Diffusion Rule from the Biden era.
The newly proposed export regime establishes a tiered licensing system based on computing scale: small-scale batches would pass through a simplified review, mid-scale deployments would require 'preclearance before seeking export licenses' from the U.S. Department of Commerce, whereas large-scale AI clusters would require governments of host countries to negotiate the deal with the U.S. government and investments in the U.S. AI infrastructure as part of the deal.
- Shipments involving up to 1,000 Nvidia GB300 GPUs would pass through a simplified review and may qualify for limited exemptions.
- Larger installations would require pre-authorization before export licenses could be issued. These will introduce compliance obligations that may include operational transparency, disclosure of business activities, and potential on-site inspections by U.S. authorities.
- Clusters powered by 200,000 GB300 GPUs operated by a single company within one country — such as those currently deployed by AWS, Microsoft, Oracle, Open AI, or xAI — would trigger direct intergovernmental arrangements. In these cases, approvals would depend on national-security assurances as well as commitments to invest in American AI infrastructure.
For now, companies like AMD, Cerebras, and Nvidia cannot ship high-performance AI processors to select countries, such as China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, just to name a few. Yet, shipping large-scale batches of AI accelerators to Middle Eastern countries requires direct intergovernmental arrangements and investments in the American AI infrastructure. If the newly proposed regulation becomes a law, then such arrangements would become much more common particularly with allied nations in Europe.
The proposed policy is by no means a total export ban, but an extremely powerful tool that lets the U.S. government influence how global AI infrastructure develops. If the Trump administration does not like the fact that a UK or France-based company deploys a cluster of over 200,000 GB300 GPUs or equivalent, it can deny appropriate export licenses if appropriate governments and companies do not meet their requirements.
If the proposed policy is enacted, for companies like AMD or Nvidia, which ship their products globally, everything will depend on how quickly licenses are granted and what conditions are attached. Fast approvals with light restrictions would let most small projects move forward, though with more paperwork. However, for larger installations, tougher requirements would delay construction and make operating large data centers outside the U.S. considerably more complicated. Meanwhile, building clusters comparable to those currently operated by AWS, Google, Oracle, Microsoft, or xAI outside of the U.S. would face extreme complications, which would lower their economic feasibility.
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Anton Shilov is a contributing writer at Tom’s Hardware. Over the past couple of decades, he has covered everything from CPUs and GPUs to supercomputers and from modern process technologies and latest fab tools to high-tech industry trends.
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