Summary: Qatar's energy minister warns that a continued war on Iran could halt Gulf energy exports within weeks, severely disrupting global energy markets and impacting worldwide GDP growth. Qatar has already suspended its significant LNG production due to attacks targeting energy infrastructure, and a full regional export stoppage is anticipated. Experts note that restarting production is a slow process, and the conflict shows no signs of ending.
Main Topics Covered:
1. The risk of a complete halt to Gulf energy exports due to escalating conflict.
2. The immediate impact on global energy markets and prices.
3. Qatar's specific suspension of LNG production and the broader regional implications.
4. The ongoing military conflict between Iran and a US-Israel coalition.
Qatar warns Iran war could halt Gulf energy exports ‘within weeks’
Global economies will be affected if the war on Iran continues for weeks, according to Qatar’s energy minister.
Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has said exports from the Gulf region could come to a halt “within weeks” if the war on Iran continues to escalate, throwing global energy markets into turmoil.
Al-Kaabi told The Financial Times (FT) newspaper in an interview published on Friday that if the war continues for weeks, “GDP growth around the world will be impacted”.
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“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” al-Kaabi was quoted as saying.
Qatar on Monday halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production as Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones at the country and its Gulf neighbours in response to attacks by the United States and Israel, which began on Saturday.
The Iranian attacks have increasingly targeted energy infrastructure, driving a jump in gas prices and raising alarm around the world.
Qatar’s LNG production is equivalent to about 20 percent of global supply and plays a key role in balancing Asian and European markets’ demand for the product.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues,” al-Kaabi told the FT, referring to a provision that frees companies from liability or obligations in the case of extraordinary events.
“All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” he said.
The minister also said that, even if the war ended immediately, it would take Qatar “weeks to months” to return to a normal cycle of deliveries.
Thijs Van de Graaf, an energy fellow at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, explained that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic Gulf waterway, has dropped dramatically due to the war.
“All of the producers in the Gulf who rely on that export route will have to shut in production, like Iraq has already done for two or three major oil fields,” Van de Graaf told Al Jazeera.
“And this could have long-term, knock-on effects, because you do not turn on and off an oil well like flipping the switch of a light,” he said. “This is bad news and the clock is ticking for many producers in the region.”
No end in sight
The war has shown no sign of abating, with senior US officials promising to rain “death and destruction” on Iran amid growing concerns of a possible ground invasion.
Meanwhile, Iran has continued to fire at targets across the region despite international condemnation of the strikes as a violation of international law.
In a social media post on Friday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was “committed to lasting peace in the region yet we have no hesitation in defending our nation’s dignity & sovereignty”.
Addressing a renewed push for mediation, Pezeshkian said any such efforts “should address those who underestimated the Iranian people and ignited this conflict”, referring to the US and Israel.
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