Article: A U.S. intelligence assessment in February found that an attack on Iran was unlikely to result in regime change.

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Summary: A U.S. National Intelligence Council assessment concluded that a large-scale military attack on Iran, even one that killed its supreme leader, would be unlikely to topple its theocratic government. The report, which built upon prior CIA analysis, found the regime deeply entrenched and doubted that a popular uprising could dislodge the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Main Topics Covered: 1. A U.S. intelligence assessment on the durability of Iran's government. 2. The scope and sourcing of the National Intelligence Council's report. 3. The entrenched power of Iran's theocratic regime and the Revolutionary Guards.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/world/middleeast/a-us-intelligence-assessment-in-february-found-that-an-attack-on-iran-was-unlikely-to-result-in-regime-change.html

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NYT > World News

Published Date

2026-03-07 16:01

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2026-03-07 16:00

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2026-03-07 16:00

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A U.S. intelligence assessment in February found that an attack on Iran was unlikely to result in regime change.
A report by the National Intelligence Council completed before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran assessed that even a large-scale military assault on the country would be unlikely to topple its theocratic government, according to U.S. officials briefed on the work.
The N.I.C., which is part of Tulsi Gabbard’s Office of National Intelligence, is in charge of crafting intelligence assessments based on an array of views across the intelligence community. While some of their reports are joint products, others are produced independently, with less coordination.
The council’s document, drafted late last month, builds on work by the C.I.A. that assessed that a complete change of government was unlikely even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, was killed in a U.S.-led military operation. But the actual report was an independent product of the council, the officials said.
Still, there seemed to be wide agreement that the theological government in Iran is deeply entrenched. Intelligence officials have been skeptical that a popular uprising could dislodge the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the organization that exerts control over much of the security apparatus in Iran as well as large sectors of its economy.
The N.I.C. report was earlier reported by The Washington Post.
Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.
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