Summary: Global stock markets fell as oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, driven by fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict. The fighting has expanded, with significant casualties in Iran and Lebanon, where over 600,000 people have been displaced. Internally, Iran appointed a new supreme leader amid public dissent, while global leaders met to address potential oil shortages.
Main Topics Covered: 1. The impact of the Middle East conflict on global oil prices and financial markets. 2. Military developments and casualty reports from Iran and Lebanon. 3. Iran's internal political developments, including the appointment of a new supreme leader. 4. International diplomatic and economic responses to the crisis.
Tehran10:30 p.m. March 9 Live Updates: Oil Price Surge Rattles Markets; Iranians Appear Conflicted on Choice of Leader Stocks fell on fears of the effects of the Iran war on energy prices. The toll of the escalated fighting rose sharply in Lebanon, where more than 600,000 people have been displaced, according to its president. - Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times - Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times - Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times - Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times - Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times - Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times - Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times - Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times - Amit Elkayam for The New York Times - AFPTV - Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times - Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times As oil prices surged, stocks tumbled around the world on Monday, reflecting global fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict, while fresh Israeli and U.S. strikes pummeled Iran, and Iran launched attacks at its neighbors. With the toll in casualties and destruction rising, oil traded just under $100 a barrel on Monday, more than 30 percent higher than they were just before the war began on Feb. 28. The price of the international benchmark crude had spiked briefly to almost $120, then fell back as top officials from the United States and six other industrialized nations met to try to ensure the world doesn’t run out of fuel. Those Group of 7 countries met by video on Monday and decided not to tap into their oil reserves right away. They left open that option, though, effectively signaling that they were not yet worried about an acute shortage. The price of gasoline in the United States jumped again on Monday to an average of $3.48 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club, a more than 16 percent increase since the first U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28 and the highest level since 2024. Investors appear increasingly worried about the lack of a clear offramp for the fighting, which has spread across the Middle East, disrupted oil supplies and raised costs for consumers and businesses. President Trump’s plans for the next steps in the war, let alone its endgame, remained unclear and Iran showed no sign of bowing to his demand for unconditional surrender, instead naming a son of its slain supreme leader as his successor despite President Trump saying he was “unacceptable.” Trump is due to speak to reporters Monday afternoon. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, boasted on social media about soaring oil prices and called the attacks on his country “Operation Epic Mistake.” He added, “We, too, have many surprises in store.” Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed by senior clerics on Monday, after Israeli threats to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s successor. Iran’s military and hard-line political forces trumpeted the selection, but in Tehran, opponents of the government were heard chanting “Death to Mojtaba” from their windows — reflecting widespread if muted dissent. As the conflict raged into its 10th day, U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran had killed about 1,300 people, according to Iranian officials, while Iranian attacks across the Middle East killed more than 30. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes have killed almost 500 people, state media reported, and more than 600,000 people have been displaced, according to President Joseph Aoun. In response to rocket fire by Iran-backed Hezbollah, Israeli forces have pushed into southern Lebanon and bombarded Hezbollah strongholds. A ballistic missile launched from Iran targeted Turkey before being downed by NATO defenses, the Turkish defense ministry said. It was the second such announcement in six days. Officials said a previous Iranian attack, on March 4, had been aimed at the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey. Turkey is a member of the NATO alliance, whose nations are bound to defend one another. Iran denied targeting Turkey and has yet to comment on Monday’s announcement. At least one person was killed in Israel during an Iranian missile attack on Monday morning, according to Magen David Adom, the Israeli emergency service, raising the death toll in the country to at least 11. Saudi Arabia said Monday it had intercepted attacks headed toward the kingdom’s massive Shaybah oil field, drones over Riyadh, the capital, and ballistic missiles targeting a Saudi air base. In Bahrain, the state-owned energy company declared that it could no longer fulfill its contracts, citing the continuing fighting and a recent attack on its refinery complex. Here’s what else we’re covering: New leader: Iran’s new supreme leader is known as a hard-liner who has close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. He is not just Iran’s new religious and political authority but also the commander in chief of its armed forces. Gulf states: The civilian toll of Iranian retaliatory strikes has continued to rise in Arab states along the Persian Gulf. Bahrain’s health ministry said that 32 people had been injured, including children, in an Iranian drone strike on Monday in the island of Sitra. Qatar blamed Iran for the deaths of two civilians on Sunday in Saudi Arabia, saying that an attack had targeted a residential facility. School hit: A newly released video adds to the evidence that an American missile likely hit an Iranian elementary school where 175 people, many of them children, were reported killed. The evidence contradicts Mr. Trump’s claim that Iran was responsible for the strike. Read more › Lebanon: Israeli ground forces raided a new area of southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli military, part of an effort to carve out and expand a buffer zone inside the country. Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting for the past week since the Lebanese armed group, which is backed by Iran, shot rockets at Israeli territory. Aid from Ukraine: Ukraine sent interceptor drones and a team of drone experts to help protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with The New York Times. The United States made the request for help on Thursday, and the Ukrainian team was expected to arrive in the Middle East soon, he said. Read more › The International Maritime Organization said at least seven seafarers had been killed and several others injured by attacks on merchant vessels near the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran 10 days ago. The head of the agency, Arsenio Dominguez, said personnel on merchant ships “must be protected from the consequences of broader geopolitical tensions.” A fifth of the world’s oil moves through the passage. It has been paralyzed since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Fresh graves. Weeping relatives. Anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans. On the tenth day of a sustained U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, the toll was apparent at Behesht-e Zahra, the largest cemetery in Tehran, the capital. There, over several hours on Monday, bereaved families buried relatives who had been killed by recent airstrikes. Foreign news organizations were able to attend the funerals with permission from Iranian authorities. Such burials always last from 9 a.m. to roughly 2 p.m., stopping in time for midday prayers. In January, Behesht-e Zahra was a flashpoint for dissent, after witness testimony and videos described disrespectful treatment of the dead in a brutal crackdown against anti-government protesters. On Monday, though, a different fury coursed through the cemetery. Relatives of Iranians killed in the latest airstrikes chanted “Death to the United States” and “Death to Israel.” Others chanted the name of Mojtaba Khamenei, who on Monday was appointed by senior clerics as Iran’s supreme leader. He succeeded his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the outset of the U.S.-Israeli campaign of airstrikes, alongside other top Iranian officials and military leaders. About 1,300 people have been killed in the U.S. and Israeli strikes, according to Iranian officials. Many were civilians. At Behesht-e Zahra, relatives wept as they held each other and knelt at the flowered gravesites of their loved ones, who are now considered martyrs. But Iranian authorities, citing security reasons, did not let families stay long. After an hour, they were ushered away. Major developments — March 9 Macron also described a proposal to set up an international mission to escort tanker and container ships through the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities have subsided sufficiently. A fifth of the world’s oil usually travels through the strait, which is now essentially closed due to hostilities. The mission would escort oil tankers and container ships carrying supplies for the region, he said. So far, several European nations “are ready to do it with us,” he added, along with India and other Asian countries affected by the blockage. He noted that he spoke to President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran about the proposal on Sunday. The Lebanese health ministry said Monday that Israel had targeted two civil defense sites, killing two paramedics and injuring six others, near the city of Tyre and the town of Jouaya. “The toll of paramedics continues to rise in this war,” the ministry said in a statement. The latest deaths come after three Lebanese paramedics were killed and another six injured while rescuing victims of Israeli strikes in the Tyre district last week. The head of the World Health Organization called for all “warring parties” to abide by international humanitarian law. President Emmanuel Macron of France, speaking Monday from the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently stationed in the Mediterranean, said he believed the intense phase of the war in the Middle East would continue for “several more days, maybe several weeks.” In a subtle criticism of the military operation launched by the United States and Israel nine days ago, Macron said that the duration “depends on what the ultimate objectives are.” Macron has walked a delicate line since the beginning of the war, calling the strikes illegal international law, while also maintaining that Iran’s actions had caused it.“I don’t believe there can be profound changes to a regime or a political system solely through aerial bombardments,” he added. “However, if the desired end state is to neutralize ballistic capabilities or a navy, that is possible within a timeframe of a few weeks.” Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed 486 people, including dozens of children, Lebanese state news reported Monday, citing the country’s health ministry. More than 1,300 people have been injured since the Israeli attacks began on March 2, after Hezbollah fired rockets toward Israel, saying it was responding to repeated Israeli attacks and to avenge the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the Imam Reza Elementary School for boys in Abyek, a small city in the Qazvin Province, west of Tehran, security camera footage from Feb. 28 shows scenes from an ordinary morning. Some 40 boys play on the playground. A few wander around, others linger by the soccer goal and a large group gather in a circle. That was just hours after the first joint Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, according to Iranian state media. Schools were still open. Then, the footage shows a large explosion at the top of the screen, where a communications tower stands on a hill. The blast rips through the area, damaging the school. The footage shows windows shattering. Children run, some with hands over their ears. A child falls to the ground by a soccer goal post, seemingly hit by a piece of debris. Tasnim, a semiofficial Iranian news agency, identified the child as Mahyar Zanganeh and said he had not survived. The video remained virtually unseen until it was posted online on Friday. It has since been verified by The New York Times. The footage captures one of two known explosions near a school in service on Feb. 28, the first day of U.S.-Israeli attacks. The other hit a girls’ school in Minab, where 175 people, many of them children, were reported killed. No side has taken responsibility for that strike so far. Videos verified by The Times show a Tomahawk cruise missile hitting a naval base operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps beside the school in Minab. (The U.S. military is the only force involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles.) The footage from the school in Abyek was shared by the official channel of the Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers’ Unions, one of the largest trade unions in the country; some of the group’s members have been imprisoned by the Iranian government in the past for their activism. Using before and after satellite imagery, The Times, as well as geolocation experts, have determined that the communications tower where the explosion was observed in the security camera footage seemed to have been the intended target. The structure, less than 400 feet from the playground, was reduced to rubble after the explosion. “We have active members in Qazvin Province and in the teachers’ movement there,” said Shiva Amelirad, an international representative in Toronto for the Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers’ Unions. “But unfortunately contact has not been possible yet, due to widespread internet disruptions across the country.” In a public statement, the union emphasized that targeting schools and hospitals was “rejected under any circumstances,” stressing that attacks on such spaces “were not only a violation of fundamental humanitarian principles, but also a clear breach of international law and human rights conventions.” The U.S. and Israeli militaries did not respond to requests for comment. Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting. An Emirati billionaire has become a rare public critic in the country of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and President Trump. Khalaf al-Habtoor, the founder of a major conglomerate, wrote then deleted a social media post in which he rejected Senator Lindsey Graham’s call for Persian Gulf countries to join the war on the side of the United States — and blamed rushed American decision-making for embroiling the Middle East in the conflict. “We know who took the whole region into this dangerous escalation without consulting their ‘allies’ in the region,” he wrote. The Emirates, an authoritarian country that limits free speech, is a close ally of the United States, but Mr. al-Habtoor’s sentiments reflect views that are regularly voiced in private by businessmen in the region. Al-Habtoor has been increasingly critical of Trump’s conduct in recent days, telling CNN in an interview that the president “cannot take everything by force.” He made the comments after posting an open letter to the president expressing his frustrations with the war, and also criticizing Iran. A crowd gathered at Enghelab Square in Tehran to celebrate the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the recently killed supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as his father’s successor. At least 600,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon since fighting began escalating last week, according to Joseph Aoun, the Lebanese president. In a statement, Aoun issued unusually fierce and direct criticism of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group, for igniting the current escalation with Israel with a rocket barrage last week. He said Lebanon was trapped between an Israeli assault which “show no respect for the laws of war” and “an armed group operating outside the law in Lebanon which has no regard for the interests of Lebanon and the lives of its people.” He made the comments in a phone call with senior European officials, according to the readout provided by his office. Eleven countries have asked Ukraine for security support to help counter Shahed drones, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He said in a social media post that the requests have come from countries neighboring Iran, European nations and the United States — and that some “have already been met with concrete decisions and specific support.” He did not provide further details, though Zelensky earlier told The New York Times that Ukraine sent interceptor drones and a team of experts to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan. “There is clear interest in Ukraine’s experience in protecting lives, relevant interceptors, electronic warfare systems, and training,” Zelensky added in his post on social media. “Ukraine is ready to respond positively to requests from those who help us protect the lives of Ukrainians and the independence of Ukraine. Roland Lescure, France’s finance minister, said that Group of 7 countries had decided to hold off from releasing strategic oil reserves to mitigate the impact of spiking oil prices because of the conflict in the Middle East. “We’re not there yet,” Lescure told reporters in Brussels after a video meeting with his counterparts and Fatih Birol, the head of International Energy Agency. The price of Brent Crude, the international benchmark, soared to almost $120 a barrel before falling on Monday over worries that the war could lead to prolonged disruptions to Middle East supplies. “What we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools, if need be, to stabilize the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles,” Lescure said. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said the deteriorating energy supply situation in the Middle East was “creating significant and growing risks for the market.” Mr. Birol, who met with Group of 7 finance ministers on Monday, said the group discussed the possibility of releasing some of the oil that the countries hold in their strategic reserves but he stopped short of saying whether the countries planned to do so. The International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries have more than 1.2 billion barrels of oil and refined fuels such as gasoline in reserve. In emergencies, governments can access another 600 million barrels that are held by companies in those countries. For context, the world uses more than 100 million barrels of oil daily. Two major British motoring groups, the RAC and the AA, have advised drivers in the country to conserve fuel by changing their driving habits as the war in the Middle East sends oil prices soaring. Simon Williams, a spokesman for the RAC, said gasoline and diesel prices had “rocketed” since the start of the conflict just over a week ago, and would probably continue to rise. “Driving fuel efficiently by avoiding harsh accelerating and braking and ensuring tyres are inflated to the right pressures can help eke out every last mile and save money,” he said. Edmund King, president of the AA, said people should “consider cutting out some non-essential journeys and changing their driving style to conserve fuel.” Airline stock prices fell Monday morning on news of rising oil prices. JETS, an exchange-traded fund that tracks global airline shares, was down more than 5 percent shortly after trading began on Monday. As of Friday, jet fuel prices were up more than 50 percent since the war began. In the U.S., fuel accounts for nearly 17 percent of airline costs, second only to labor, which accounts for about 35 percent. “When Cyprus is attacked, it is Europe that is attacked,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said during a visit to a Cyprus on Monday, in a show of solidarity for the European Union member after an Iranian drone crashed into a British air base in Cyprus last week. No casualties were reported in that attack. In response, Macron sent a French warship and air defense systems to the island, which lies off the coasts of Turkey, Syria and Lebanon. The State Department said it would label the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood a specially designated global terrorist and a foreign terrorist organization, after saying it had received training and support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a powerful arm of the Iranian military. The designations are aimed at imposing economic penalties on the group or people associated with it, and restricting their financial transactions. “The Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood uses unrestrained violence against civilians to undermine efforts to resolve the conflict in Sudan and advance its violent Islamist ideology,” the department said. A ballistic missile launched from Iran entered Turkish airspace on Monday and was shot down by NATO defenses, the Turkish defense ministry said in a statement. It was the second time in six days that Turkey announced the interception of a missile from Iran. Debris from the missile fell in the area of the city of Gaziantep, near Turkey’s southern border with Syria, the statement said. No injuries were reported. There was no immediate comment from Iran. Allison Hart, a NATO spokeswoman, said the alliance had again intercepted a missile heading to Turkey. “NATO stands firm in its readiness to defend all Allies against any threat,” she said. Last Wednesday, NATO shot down a missile from Iran, which a senior U.S. official and a second Western official said was aimed at the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, where the U.S. Air Force and other NATO forces operate. Turkey has said that it would not allow its airspace to be used for attacks on Iran. Iran denied that it had targeted Turkey. An Iranian strike on Turkey would be a dramatic escalation in the war in Iran because Turkey, unlike U.S. partners in the Persian Gulf that Iran has targeted, is a member of NATO. An attack on Turkey could activate the alliance’s mutual defense provision, pulling other countries into the war. Last week, after NATO shot down the first missile from Iran, Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, told Reuters that Iran was “close to becoming a threat to Europe.” But he said the alliance did not need to activate its mutual defense clause. Lara Jakes contributed reporting. NATO confirmed that it had intercepted a missile targeting Turkey on Monday, that the Turkish authorities said was fired from Iran. “NATO stands firm in its readiness to defend all allies against any threat,” Allison Hart, a spokeswoman for the alliance, said in a statement. Iranian airstrikes on Bahrain wounded more than 30 people on Monday and sparked a fire near a petroleum refinery, according to the Bahraini authorities, prompting Arab countries to condemn the latest wave of Iran’s retaliatory strikes. Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at its neighbors in the Persian Gulf since Israel and the United States began their military campaign against Iran just over a week ago. The Iranian government says that it is targeting American military bases, but the strikes have killed civilians and damaged sites including airports, hotels and energy infrastructure. Several countries in the Persian Gulf are key American allies, and Bahrain hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet and U.S. Naval Forces Central Command. Relations between several of the Persian Gulf countries and Iran were warming until the U.S.-Israeli military campaign set off a series of Iranian retaliatory strikes and engulfed the region in conflict. Bahrain’s Ministry of Health said on Monday that an Iranian drone strike in Sitra, an island near the capital, Manama, had wounded 32 Bahrainis, four of them seriously. Among the wounded were four minors, including a 2-month-old baby, the ministry said. Part of the refinery complex of Bapco Energies, Bahrain’s state-owned energy company, is on Sitra. Separately, Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior reported that a fire at a “facility” in Ma’ameer, an area near Sitra where Bapco Energies also operates, was the result of “Iranian aggression.” The fire was brought under control with no injuries or casualties, the ministry said. Hours after the drone attack, Bapco Energies invoked force majeure, a legal provision that freed it from legal liabilities because it was unable to meet its contractual obligations due to the war. Bahrain’s Defense Force said on Monday that its air defense systems had destroyed 102 missiles and 171 drones since the start of what it described as an Iranian attack on Feb. 28. Iran has hit regional U.S. allies every day since the start of the conflict, just over a week ago. Two civilians were killed on Sunday in Saudi Arabia when a “military projectile” fell on their residence in the Al Kharj region, which is home to a Saudi air base used by the U.S. military, according to Saudi Arabia’s civil defense. In a statement, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry said that Iran’s attacks against “Arab, Islamic, and friendly countries” could not be “accepted or justified under any circumstances” and that Saudi Arabia “retains its full right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its security.” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry issued a similar condemnation on Monday, blaming the death of the two civilians in Saudi Arabia on Iran and warning against “dangerous escalation that threatens the security and stability of the region.” Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, had apologized on Saturday for the waves of Iranian attacks on neighboring countries. But he quickly backtracked after facing criticism from other Iranian leaders. President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would mobilize a total of eight frigates and two helicopter carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz, to help defend against Iranian attacks and ensure the continued flow of oil and gas. The French aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is already dispatched to the Mediterranean, and a French frigate arrived in Cyprus last week, after an Iranian-made drone crashed into a British air base there. “This mobilization of our navy is unprecedented,” Macron said during a press conference at a Cypriot military base, alongside the leaders of Cyprus and Greece. Global markets came under renewed pressure at the start of the week, as surging oil prices stemming from the conflict in Iran weighed on stocks and bonds from New York to Tokyo. The S&P 500 fell roughly 1 percent as trading opened Monday morning. That came after a drop of more than 2 percent last week, the biggest weekly decline for the benchmark index in about five months. Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats party in Britain, called on King Charles III to cancel his state visit to the United States in protest of what Mr. Davey calls President Trump’s “illegal war” against Iran. Mr. Davey urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to advise the king to call off the trip, which is expected to take place next month as part of celebrations to mark the 250th anniversary of American independence. A specific date has not been announced. “At a time when Trump has launched an illegal war that is devastating the Middle East and pushing up energy bills for British families, it’s clear this visit should not go ahead,” Mr. Davey said in a statement on Monday. “A state visit from our King would be seen as yet another huge diplomatic coup for President Trump, so it should not be given to someone who repeatedly insults and damages our country.” Buckingham Palace said that no state visit has been confirmed and that all state visits happen on the advice of the government. But government officials have previously indicated that planning was underway for the king to travel to the United States in late spring. A spokesman for Mr. Starmer declined to comment. Steve Reed, a Labour Party lawmaker and a minister in the prime minister’s cabinet, told the BBC, “I don’t think it is for Ed Davey to decide what the King should or should not be doing.” The centrist Liberal Democrats are the third largest party in the British Parliament, with 72 of its 650 seats. Mr. Davey’s demand comes at a delicate moment for Mr. Starmer, whose relationship with Mr. Trump has gone from rosy to grim in the last several weeks. The president has repeatedly belittled the prime minister for not joining the initial attacks against Iran. On Saturday, Mr. Trump lashed out again on his social media platform after Mr. Starmer announced that his government was sending more ships to the Gulf to help defend Cyprus and other allies. “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer,” Mr. Trump wrote. “But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!” Mr. Starmer had previously made it a priority to please Mr. Trump, saying that doing so would benefit Britain in its dealing with the United States. Last year, the prime minister was the first foreign leader to negotiate a trade deal with Mr. Trump to avoid even higher tariffs. In September, the king hosted a lavish state visit for Mr. Trump at Windsor Castle after the invitation was delivered to the president by Mr. Starmer. But the friendly relationship between the two leaders has frayed since then. Mr. Trump has angrily criticized Britain for refusing to allow America to use a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in Diego Garcia and another base in England to launch the initial attacks on Iran. “He should be giving us, without question or hesitation, things like bases,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with the New York Post last week. Israeli forces advanced in southern Lebanon on Monday, entering new territory as part of a stated effort to expand a military-controlled buffer zone, as Israel stepped up its campaign against the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah. Israeli fighter jets also launched among their heaviest bombardment yet of the southern suburbs of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, sending huge explosions echoing throughout the city. Earlier on Monday, Israel had threatened to attack sites linked to Al-Qard Al-Hasan, Hezbollah’s de facto bank. Israeli ground forces began a raid in an area close to the border with Lebanon, the military said in a statement, after seizing new sites inside Lebanon in recent days. The fighting in Lebanon began last week, when Hezbollah launched a rocket attack against Israel, in retaliation for the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom Israel assassinated in the opening strikes of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Since then, the Israeli military has responded with an escalating military campaign across Lebanon. At least 600,000 people in Lebanon have fled their homes and more than 560 people had been killed, including more than 80 children, according to the Lebanese authorities. Edouard Beigbeder, the regional director for UNICEF, the United Nations’ children’s agency, called the death toll “a stark testament to the toll that conflict is taking on children.” Joseph Aoun, the Lebanese president, presented what he called a new initiative to end the fighting during a phone call with European officials, according to his office. Under the terms he mentioned, Lebanon’s government would hold direct talks with Israel — under international supervision — for ending the escalation and disarming Hezbollah. It was unclear whether those talks would be supported by Hezbollah, which is distinct from the Lebanese government and has long operated as a powerful state within a state. But despite political will to disarm Hezbollah over the past year, the Lebanese government has been largely unable to effectively confront the group. But Hezbollah is facing rising public frustration, as many Lebanese say they have been dragged by the militia into a deadly confrontation with Israel without any clear benefit. Mr. Aoun also issued unusually blistering criticism of Hezbollah on Monday, accusing the group of having “no regard for the interests of Lebanon or the lives of its people,” according a statement provided by his office. The Hezbollah rocket attack on Israel, he said, had achieved nothing. “Did they provide a deterrent to prevent Israel from launching an aggressive response against Lebanon and its people? Absolutely not,” Mr. Aoun said. “Did they achieve, even on an emotional level, a convincing revenge for the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei? Certainly not.” Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, vowed on Thursday that the country would “not only not retreat from Hezbollah, but rather seize the opportunity to strike them. We are hitting them and will continue to do so.” Military analysts say the Israeli actions could signal that Israeli forces are preparing for a wider ground invasion in Lebanon. The Israeli military has called up roughly 100,000 reserve soldiers as part of the war with Iran, some of whom have been sent to the northern border. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman, dismissed that prospect. “This is part of our forward defense posture. This is a measure to make sure that our troops in those positions are safe,” Colonel Shoshani told reporters on Monday. Hwaida Saad, Reham Mourshed, Johnatan Reiss and Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting. It was the second time in six days that Turkey announced it had intercepted a missile from Iran that it had entered its airspace. Last Wednesday, NATO also shot down a missile that a senior U.S. official and another Western official said was aimed at the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, where the U.S. Air Force and other NATO forces operate. Iran denied that it had targeted Turkey. An Iranian strike on Turkey would mark a dramatic escalation in the war in Iran because Turkey, unlikely U.S. partners in the Persian Gulf that have been targeted, is a member of NATO. An attack on Turkey could activate the alliance’s mutual defense clause, puling other countries into the war. A ballistic missile launched from Iran entered Turkish air space and was shot down by NATO defenses, the Turkish defense ministry said on Monday. Debris from the missile fell in the area of the city of Gaziantep, near Turkey’s southern border with Syria, the statement said. No injuries were reported. There was no immediate comment from Iran or from NATO about Monday’s missile. Iran warned the United States and Israel against attacking Kharg Island, a land mass in the northern Persian Gulf that is the key export hub for Iranian oil. Esmail Baghaei, a spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, said at a news conference that Iran was a “graveyard for foreigners” when he was asked to respond to reports that the United States could target the island. Kharg has not been hit in the conflict but over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel expanded their targets to include Iran’s oil infrastructure. Australia was facing mounting calls on Monday to help the members of Iran’s national women’s soccer team, after Iranian state media referred to them as “traitors” for not singing the national anthem during a tournament in Australia. The 26-member squad is expected to return home after playing its final game of the women’s Asian Cup on Sunday night, but members of the Iranian diaspora, sports officials and Australian politicians are concerned that their safety could be at risk when they arrive in Iran. It was not immediately clear when they were scheduled to depart Australia. Worries for the team arose last week during its first match of the tournament. Players remained silent during the national anthem in an apparent protest against the Iranian government, prompting a commentator on Iranian state television to call for their punishment. “They can only talk with silence. It was a dismissal of the regime,” said Tina Kordrostami, a local councilor in the Sydney area who said she had been in contact with some of the players. She called the silent protest “one of the most courageous things I’ve seen.” President Trump said on social media that Australia, whose government has declined to comment on the players’ situation, was making a “terrible humanitarian mistake” by letting the team “be forced back to Iran,” and called on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to offer asylum to the team. “The U.S. will take them if you don’t,” he added. Earlier Monday, Reza Pahlavi, an exiled son of the deposed Iranian shah, said on social media that the women had engaged in a “brave act of civil disobedience” and warned that they would face “dire consequences” upon returning home. He urged the Australian government to “ensure their safety and give them any and all needed support.” FIFPro, a global soccer players’ union, also expressed concern for the women’s safety and called on the sport’s governing bodies to engage with the Australian government to make sure “every effort is made to protect the safety of the players.” Australia’s department of home affairs declined to comment, saying it could not address individual cases because of privacy. Asked about the team, Foreign Minister Penny Wong expressed “solidarity” with Iran’s women and girls, but also said she could not comment on the players’ situation. The team left Iran for the tournament a few days before U.S.-Israeli strikes began on Feb. 28, according to the Tehran Times. As the tournament progressed, the players were secluded and efforts by Iranian community groups, players’ unions and sports organizations to get in contact with them were unsuccessful, said Craig Foster, a human rights advocate and a former captain of Australia’s national soccer team. “It is clear they are being silenced and coerced,” said Mr. Foster, who was involved in past campaigns to help the Afghan women’s national soccer team flee Taliban rule and resettle in Australia. In that instance, Australia provided emergency humanitarian visas to the women and their families. The safety of the Iranian players is ultimately the responsibility of the Asian Football Confederation, which organized the tournament, and soccer’s governing body, FIFA, Mr. Foster said. Ms. Kordrostami, the local councilor, said she was in the lobby of the hotel where the players were staying Monday evening and had spoken to one of the members of the team, who said her teammates were all terrified, particularly for the safety of their family members back home. After staying silent during the anthem for their first match, the team sang the anthem for their second and third games, which the players said they had done because of government pressure, Ms. Kordrostami said. “Obviously, since they got intimidated so harshly, they’re more scared,” she said. “They were born and raised in a country that removed any notion of having a choice for them.” Democrats seized on a surge in oil prices on Sunday, arguing that it was an immediate consequence of the war in Iran that would inflame an affordability crisis, as Republicans sought to downplay the data. “We’ve been saying for months that affordability is the No. 1 issue,” Representative Tom Suozzi, Democrat of New York, said in an interview. “But this is a very real-life consequence of some of the actions being taken by the administration.” Mr. Suozzi, who was among a few Democrats from swing districts who expressed cautious approval for the initial strikes in Iran last weekend, said it was now apparent that the administration had not fully planned for the economic costs. “While there’s a sugar high — you feel good, hey, we’ll get the bad guys — it’s not really very well thought out,” Mr. Suozzi said of the war, which the U.S. is waging with Israel against Iran. The global oil benchmark topped $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly four years on Sunday, hitting a threshold that could pose political challenges for the party in power. Other recent economic data, including a weak jobs report, has put Republicans on the defensive on one of the central issues of the midterm elections. President Trump, who is often quick to react to market swings, immediately sought to minimize the jump. On social media, he wrote that prices would “drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over,” and that “ONLY FOOLS” would not see the surging oil costs as a small price to pay for global security. Democrats saw it differently. “As Trump refuses to acknowledge Americans’ concerns with the war, prices at the pump are soaring and working families are being crushed by high prices at the grocery store,” Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement. The week-old war in Iran is unpopular with most Americans, according to opinion polls, and it is unclear how long the fighting might go on. The administration has offered conflicting visions of how the coming weeks might play out, though Mr. Trump said last weekend that the war could last “four to five weeks.” Kiersten Pels, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, said in a statement that Democrats were “fearmongering” about gas prices. “President Trump is confronting the Iranian regime and protecting American security while Democrats try to rewrite their record of weakness,” she said. Still, the huge jump in oil prices suggested that traders were growing increasingly concerned about the flow of oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf with the war grinding forward. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have in recent days become a bigger focal point in the midterms. Nationwide, the price of a gallon of gasoline has surged by 47 cents in the last week alone, according to AAA. Four years ago, under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrats were the ones playing defense on fuel prices. Prices surged after Russia invaded Ukraine, and Mr. Biden banned imports of Russian oil, gas and coal in a bid to hamper Moscow’s war effort. By June 2022, the price of a gallon of gas was about $5, despite a bid by Mr. Biden to lower costs by releasing millions of barrels of oil from a strategic reserve. (The current national average gas price is $3.45, according to AAA.) And Republicans hammered the administration over the surging costs, which were primarily driven by the Covid-19 pandemic’s effects on supply and demand. Gas prices fell during the summer of 2022, and Democrats had a better-than-expected showing in the midterm elections that year. On Sunday, even before oil prices surged briefly above $110 a barrel, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic minority leader, was calling on the Trump administration to release oil from strategic reserves. “Due to Donald Trump’s reckless war of choice, gas prices have surged to their highest levels in years,” Mr. Schumer wrote on social media. “His response? ‘If they rise, they rise.’ He couldn’t care less.”