The AI-driven memory shortage has caused DRAM prices to shift on an hourly basis, creating a severe market split. Large, top-tier buyers like major cloud providers and device manufacturers can secure supply, while over 190,000 small and mid-size enterprises struggle with volatile pricing and prepayment demands.
These high costs are forcing smaller firms to cut their demand forecasts to survive, which may reduce overall market demand. Analysts project extreme price increases through 2026, with PC and smartphone shipments expected to drop significantly due to the inflated memory costs.
A potential consequence is that if enough smaller buyers exit the market, the current tight capacity could rapidly turn into an oversupply, revealing the shortage as potentially "illusory."
Main Topics: AI-induced memory shortage, volatile DRAM pricing, market disparity between large and small buyers, impact on PC and smartphone industries, potential market correction.
AI memory crunch forces DRAM market into 'hourly pricing' model, report claims — small and medium-sized businesses fighting for survival
Over 190,000 small and mid-size electronics companies are being squeezed out of the memory market by AI.
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Memory prices have begun shifting on an hourly basis as the AI-driven shortage intensifies, according to a DigiTimes report published today, with semiconductor industry insiders warning that smaller firms unable to place immediate orders with upfront payment risk sharply higher quotes within minutes. The report describes a market now split between roughly 100 top-tier buyers with the leverage to secure supply and more than 190,000 small and mid-size enterprises fighting over what remains.
The report says that cloud service providers, leading automakers, and smartphone giants Apple and Samsung hold enough financial clout to resist price hikes and maintain priority allocation from memory manufacturers. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron cannot afford to jeopardize those relationships, so these large customers get served first, while also increasingly requiring prepayment or cash transactions before confirming orders — terms that smaller firms with little bargaining power will struggle with.
According to DigiTimes, these companies began struggling to absorb soaring memory costs in the second half of 2025. As prices continued climbing into 2026, some have started revising demand forecasts downward in what amounts to a "cut losses to survive" strategy. That approach is expected to spread as high prices persist, directly reducing overall market demand for memory.
Last month, TrendForce revised its Q1 2026 DRAM contract price forecast upward to a 90-95% quarter-over-quarter increase, with NAND flash up 55-60% over the same period. A separate DigiTimes report published today indicates that DRAM prices could surge a further 70% in Q2 2026, while research firm IDC has warned the shortage could persist well into 2027.
HP disclosed last month that DRAM now accounts for 35% of its PC build cost, up from between 15% and 18% a quarter earlier. Meanwhile, Gartner projects PC shipments will drop more than 10% in 2026, and smartphone shipments will fall roughly 8%, both driven by memory costs. IDC expects white-box and lower-tier vendors, including DIY system builders, to bear the heaviest burden.
All this raises a question about what happens next if enough SMEs exit the market because they can’t afford the premiums. If smaller buyers collectively pull back, tight capacity could soon become oversupply, potentially exposing the shortage as “illusory,” says DigiTimes.
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Luke James is a freelance writer and journalist. Although his background is in legal, he has a personal interest in all things tech, especially hardware and microelectronics, and anything regulatory.
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80251 Reply
DRAM as a commodity, oh that would be fun.timsSOFTWARE said:It sounds like the sort of thing that futures markets are made for. -
jp7189 There are folks like Dell that run a just in time supply chain that they've been very proud of "pioneering". This market is biting them badly. I have a client thats looking to refresh laptops and the quote jumped from $700k to 1.1m in a few months.Reply
There are others that have long term supply agreements that limit their exposure in the short-term to this craziness, but if this keeps up for more than a year, they're gonna hurt too.. or rather their end users are.
Meridiano
