A sharp forecasted rise in memory prices is set to drastically reshape the consumer PC market. By 2028, the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment is expected to disappear as memory costs become too high for vendors to absorb on low-margin products.
This component inflation will also delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028, as these premium devices are especially sensitive to DRAM price increases. Higher overall PC prices will lead to longer upgrade cycles and a 10.4% decline in global shipments this year.
The market will increasingly concentrate on higher-end devices where margins can better withstand cost pressures, with a similar downturn and consumer shift expected in the smartphone market.
Main topics: Rising memory/component costs, disappearance of the budget PC market, impact on AI PC adoption, extended PC upgrade cycles, and overall market contraction.
Entry-level PC market to ‘disappear’ by 2028 — rising memory prices pile more strain on consumer PC market
Memory is on track to account for 23% of a PC's total bill of materials in 2026, up from 16% last year.
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A 130% surge in combined DRAM and SSD prices by the end of 2026 will push PC prices up 17% compared to 2025 levels and wipe out the sub-$500 PC market entirely by 2028, according to a forecast published by research firm Gartner on February 26. The price shock will drive global PC shipments down 10.4% this year versus 2025, the steepest annual contraction in over a decade, as consumers and businesses hold onto existing hardware rather than upgrade.
The root cause is component inflation, with Gartner projecting that memory costs will climb from 16% to 23% of a PC's total bill of materials this year, a shift large enough to eliminate vendors' ability to absorb costs on low-margin products. Entry-level laptops under $500 become financially unviable at that ratio, and Gartner expects that price tier to be gone from the market within two years.
"This sharp increase removes vendors' ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028," said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner.
Gartner previously projected AI PCs would reach 50% market penetration before the end of the decade, but rising memory prices on premium-tier hardware will also push that milestone back to 2028. AI PCs, of course, require more onboard memory to run local inference workloads, making them especially exposed to DRAM cost increases.
Longer upgrade cycles will follow directly from higher prices, and Gartner says that PC lifetimes will extend by 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers by the end of 2026, a trend it noted will raise concerns about security vulnerabilities on aging hardware.
For the PC market, demand will increasingly concentrate at the top end, where vendors carry enough margin to absorb component inflation without destroying profitability. Gartner advised vendors to accept unit volume decline rather than cut prices to chase budget buyers. "Overall, device vendors and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimize pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability from the second quarter onwards," Atwal said.
The forecast covers smartphones as well, where shipments are projected to fall 8.4% this year. Gartner estimated basic smartphone buyers will exit the market five times faster than premium buyers in 2026 as rising costs push consumers toward refurbished or second-hand alternatives.
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Luke James is a freelance writer and journalist. Although his background is in legal, he has a personal interest in all things tech, especially hardware and microelectronics, and anything regulatory.
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Hooda Thunkett "Gartner previously projected AI PCs would reach 50% market penetration before the end of the decade, but rising memory prices on premium-tier hardware will also push that milestone back to 2028."Reply
Pretty sure 2028 is actually still before the end of the decade. -
JRStern LOL, you can't eliminate entry-level, you just mean entry-level is getting more expensive.Reply
And there are no AI PCs, that rocket blew up at launch. The current AI features are minimal and nobody has yet found a use for them. This may eventually change but it needs some value, not just hype. -
LordVile Reply
Guessing the “writer” hallucinated a bitHooda Thunkett said:"Gartner previously projected AI PCs would reach 50% market penetration before the end of the decade, but rising memory prices on premium-tier hardware will also push that milestone back to 2028."
Pretty sure 2028 is actually still before the end of the decade. -
Notton On the one hand, Good.Reply
Most of the "entry level" laptops were manufactured e-waste that broke down right outside of the warranty period with nothing you can do to cheaply fix them because the RAM and SSD/eMMC were soldered down.
Even if they lived outside of the warranty period, most of them couldn't even serve a second life because the specs were inadequate.
On the other hand, Ugh.
There were some legitimately interesting low-end laptops coming from smaller brands and this is killing their momentum.
For instance, though not exactly a stellar track record, AOC and Acemagic have laptops running on R7-4xxx/5xxx, DDR4-SODIMM (Same thing, different badge?) that none of the major brands bother to carry anymore. -
SSGBryan If Garnter predicted the sun came up in the east, I would be outside tomorrow with a compass.Reply -
TerryLaze Reply
There are more than enough AI features out there with substantial uses.JRStern said:The current AI features are minimal and nobody has yet found a use for them. This may eventually change but it needs some value, not just hype.
YOU might not have any use for them (neither do I) but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
All of the gaming upscaling is AI, noise suppression and background blurring is AI, edge gaming assist and game pilot are AI.
There are more then enough reasons for somebody that is new to PCs to go with AI, we are the dinosaurs that are on their way out.
(I'm leaving out professional uses like photo and video editing and other stuff like that)
It's not just AI youtube shorts and AI girl/boy friends, and generic crap. -
Sippincider Reply
Heh, warranty period?Notton said:Most of the "entry level" laptops were manufactured e-waste that broke down right outside of the warranty period
Years ago, got dragged into helping a friend's family with a bottom-spec Windows ME box they bought on closeout (a 100% price-based purchase). It literally could do nothing more than boot up and tell them the antivirus was expired. -
helper800 Reply
Nvidia is the only one with meaningfully useful AI features for their cards, in my opinion. All the other AI would immediately die if they had to be paid for by its consumers. Nvidia is also in the business of selling the idea of sales to other salesmen and pocketing billions doing it. Once the salesmen they are selling these ideas to find out that their products are worthless or extremely over invested in vs the amount of income they generate, the entire industry is going up in flames.TerryLaze said:There are more than enough AI features out there with substantial uses.
YOU might not have any use for them (neither do I) but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
All of the gaming upscaling is AI, noise suppression and background blurring is AI, edge gaming assist and game pilot are AI.
There are more then enough reasons for somebody that is new to PCs to go with AI, we are the dinosaurs that are on their way out.
(I'm leaving out professional uses like photo and video editing and other stuff like that)
It's not just AI youtube shorts and AI girl/boy friends, and generic crap. -
vinay2070 Back in the days when I used to read toms on a dial-up internet, articles used to be better and tech oriented. Now its worse than wccftech.Reply -
logainofhades Entry level is not going to disappear. It may get more expensive, or be a generation or two behind the latest/greatest, but it is not going to disappear....Reply
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