Macron prepares France for ‘an age of nuclear weapons’ as Iran war rages
The French president, whose term ends in a year, described his plans for expansion as forward deterrence. What’s behind his move?
Paris, France – A couple of days after the United States and Israel launched their assault on Iran, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on March 2 that France would bolster its nuclear arsenal and strengthen ties with fellow European Union countries.
He called the policy “forward deterrence”.
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With the speech, Macron demonstrated a show of strength in a rapidly changing world, where European allies are hesitant to rely on the US’s nuclear protection.
France currently has the fourth biggest nuclear arsenal in the world.
“What I want more than anything, as you will have understood, is for Europeans to regain control of their own destiny,” Macron said.
The declaration raises questions about Europe’s strategic future.
Some have described a watershed moment for European security, but the rhetoric is mainly a strong confirmation of France’s longstanding nuclear policy, according to geopolitical analyst Gregoire Roos.
“Ever since the French acquired nuclear weapons in the sixties, the French have a definition of the concept of vital interest that projects way beyond national borders,” Roos said. “The French have never thought of nuclear deterrence in an exclusively national context, at least from a geographical perspective … There’s always been a strong European dimension.”
France tends to be vague about the precise geographical extent of its “vital interests”, but its focus extends beyond the country’s borders.
“Macron heightened the fact that for France, the scope of vital interest was much larger than what many would think,” Roos said. “It also matters to remain ambiguous when it comes to the exact geographical scope of your vital interests.”
France’s ‘balancing act’
Macron’s policy reaffirms the doctrine of French nuclear strategy adopted by General Charles de Gaulle, the first president of the country’s Fifth Republic.
The Gaullist policy considered nuclear deterrence a protection for France’s territory and an assurance of political independence, Roos noted.
“This is a balancing act. The president reminded everyone that nuclear deterrence remained sovereign. There is no such thing as sharing nuclear codes or decisions on nuclear weapons,” Roos said.
Reaffirming ambiguity, France will stop communicating the number of their nuclear warheads. Currently, the country has approximately 290 warheads.
France also plans to collaborate more closely with the United Kingdom, the only neighbouring country with nuclear weapons, along with Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark.
“There’s a clear keenness and ability to project nuclear force outside of the national territory by positioning, for instance, French jet fighters carrying nuclear weapons on the territory of other European countries,” Roos said.
Nuclear programme decisions as Iran war rages
With escalating conflict in the Middle East, Iran’s nuclear programme is at the forefront of discussions.
While France opposes Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, Macron has condemned the US and Israel’s assault on the country, calling the strikes illegal and outside of international law.
“The French are very clear on the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme. But the threats emanating from the country can’t be solved militarily, let alone with regime change,” Laure Foucher, a researcher at the French think tank Foundation for Strategic Research, or FRS, told Al Jazeera.
“The [French] have always favoured a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue in Iran,” Foucher added.
France has a tangled history with Iran.
In 1974, Iran expressed interest in France’s nuclear technology and signed an agreement where Iran became a 10 percent shareholder in Eurodif, a French uranium enrichment company. The uranium was intended to be used in Iran’s civilian nuclear energy development.
“The goal of Iran’s nuclear programme was not military. But it’s clear that when you develop civilian nuclear technology, inevitably, the military possibility becomes accessible,” Ardeshir Zahedi, Iran’s late former foreign minister, said in an interview with French radio station RFI.
In 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini rose to power in the Islamic revolution, and tensions escalated. Tehran demanded repayment of the loan it had given to Eurodif for production. But because of the revolution, the French government refused, saying Iran did not meet its shareholder obligations.
Relations worsened, and members of the Islamic Jihad in Lebanon kidnapped several French journalists and diplomats. They demanded that France repay its debt to Iran and stop supplying weapons to Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The French government refused.
In this period, Iran was accused of indirectly sponsoring several attacks in France. In 1986, a bomb exploded in Paris, killing seven people and injuring 55.
Finally, the French government agreed to pay the majority of the Eurodif debt in exchange for the hostages in Lebanon in 1988. Three years later, the remaining debt was settled with a $1bn payment to Iran.
‘An age of geopolitical acceleration’
France signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015, which significantly limited Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for easing some of the sanctions on the country. But in 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the deal, and Iran resumed operations.
“France was involved in diplomatic efforts, even though the Europeans were marginalised in the negotiations between the United States and Iran,” Foucher noted.
Macron’s announcement comes at a time when Europe is working to stand strong, independent of the US and its nuclear umbrella.
“We live in an age of geopolitical acceleration, in which conventional threats and war are coming back very quickly,” Roos said. “So there is this feeling that the nuclear option has to be visible on the table.”
In his speech, Macron said, “We are in another strategic universe.”
“The next half century … will be an age of nuclear weapons.”
Despite the strong rhetoric, France faces an uphill battle to bolster its capabilities.
“You need a greater budget. That means at least an additional 100 billion euros per year [$115bn], and that will not come with more debt. It will come with reduced spending in other areas,” Roos said. “To make it sustainable, the French will need to significantly increase their defence spending.”
Macron’s presidency ends in about a year, with elections slated for April 2027.
“He is so weak domestically,” Roos said. “Macron is left with only the world stage, because constitutionally, he is the master, if I may say so, of foreign and defence policy. He knows he has one year left to really cement his legacy as someone who woke Europe up after decades of sleepwalking.”
To succeed, Macron needs to strengthen European alliances, including coordination for the EU’s nuclear umbrella.
“He knows that there is no legacy in global affairs and foreign policy if his legacy in Europe is not clear,” Roos said.
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