A European Central Bank blog post suggests that, contrary to common fears, firms in the euro zone significantly using AI are more likely to hire additional staff in the near term. It also finds that companies planning AI investments have positive expectations for employment growth, with no expected hiring pause due to AI investment in the coming year.
However, the authors caution that the longer-term outlook could change as AI begins to more deeply transform production processes, noting that other surveys predicting job losses often look further ahead.
The main topics covered are the short-term employment effects of AI adoption, contrasting views on AI's impact on jobs, and the difference between near-term and long-term forecasts.
The increasing use of artificial intelligence by firms may be creating some jobs in the euro zone rather than destroying them as many fear, a European Central Bank blog post argued on Wednesday.
Economists have been debating whether AI could âput white â collar â staff out of work, and a recent study by Germany's Ifo Institute found that more than a quarter of German firms expect AI to lead to job cuts in the next five years.
But the ECB's own Survey on the âAccess to Finance of Enterprises found â that companies âmaking significant use of AI are more âlikely âto take on additional staff in the â near term.
"In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on âaverage, to hire rather than fire," the âblog post, which is not necessarily the view of the ECB, said.
Firms planning to invest in AI are also more likely to have positive expectations for future employment growth, the blog argued.
"This is true regardless âof the level of planned AI investment and suggests that a pause in hiring âdue to âinvestment in AI â technology is also unlikely over the next year," the blog, written by two ECB staff economists, said.
However, the outlook may âchange on the longer horizon, the authors said. Most of the gloomier surveys cover longer horizons than the ECB's own question and the outlook could change once AI starts to significantly transform production processes.
Economists have been debating whether AI could âput white â collar â staff out of work, and a recent study by Germany's Ifo Institute found that more than a quarter of German firms expect AI to lead to job cuts in the next five years.
But the ECB's own Survey on the âAccess to Finance of Enterprises found â that companies âmaking significant use of AI are more âlikely âto take on additional staff in the â near term.
"In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on âaverage, to hire rather than fire," the âblog post, which is not necessarily the view of the ECB, said.
Firms planning to invest in AI are also more likely to have positive expectations for future employment growth, the blog argued.
"This is true regardless âof the level of planned AI investment and suggests that a pause in hiring âdue to âinvestment in AI â technology is also unlikely over the next year," the blog, written by two ECB staff economists, said.
However, the outlook may âchange on the longer horizon, the authors said. Most of the gloomier surveys cover longer horizons than the ECB's own question and the outlook could change once AI starts to significantly transform production processes.
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