Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are facilitating large-scale betting on geopolitical events, including the potential fall of the Iranian regime and the status of its leadership. The platforms face criticism for allowing bets on events involving death, leading to complex rules and justifications from executives attempting to distance the practice from profiting from tragedy.
This activity is framed as part of a broader, perverse economy merging Silicon Valley, crypto, and gambling, which was pioneered and legalized by sports betting companies through aggressive lobbying. The model has expanded from sports to allow betting on virtually any event, creating a lucrative industrial complex that critics argue exploits addiction and disconnection from real-world consequences.
The main topics covered are prediction markets betting on geopolitics, the ethical controversies of profiting from death, and the expansion and legitimization of the gambling industrial complex.
The main bet on the front page of Polymarket right now is “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” The site has this at a 41 percent chance of happening as I write this.
On Polymarket, more than $5 million has been spent gambling on this question. On Kalshi, a competing prediction market where users can bet on almost anything, $54 million was spent on “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?,” a bet whose results somehow ended up ambiguous even after Khamenei’s assassination.
In a series of tweets over the weekend, Kalshi’s CEO and founder Tarek Mansour repeatedly twisted himself into pretzels attempting to explain how the absurd, grotesque exercise of allowing people to bet on politics, geopolitics, and world events is not supposed to allow people to profit from death.
“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death,” he wrote. He then posted the underlying rules of the bet, which read “If <leader> leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).”
That we are discussing the ins-and-outs of which random gamblers get paid out during an illegal war in which already hundreds of school children have been bombed to death feels like the type of grotesque sideshow that is only possible because the U.S. government is only interested in regulating its perceived political enemies, and which only feels possible because much of the American economy feels held together by cope and the gobs of money being thrown into AI, data centers, and gambling. All of this is part of the perverse Silicon Valley, AI, crypto, and X-adjacent hustlebro gambling economy, which was legalized by companies like DraftKings and FanDuel, who spent eyewatering sums lobbying states to allow their gambling apps, and has been “legitimized” by sports leagues who wanted to print money and media companies desperate for the advertising dollars that came from gambling and has turned this all into a massive industrial complex that is not-so-slowly bankrupting a generation of underemployed people addicted to gambling. Polymarket and Kalshi took the DraftKings and FanDuel model and let people bet on basically anything, so now you can bet on which countries Iran will launch missiles against on the same app you bet on the Nuggets/Jazz game or the winner of the Best Picture Academy Award. The new model is so good at parting people from their money that DraftKings and FanDuel themselves have been anxious to get into prediction markets.
Meridiano
